According to the Wikipedia, “scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. The original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers. The games combine known facts with plausible alternative social, technical, economic, environmental, educational, political and aesthetic (STEEEPA) trends which are key driving forces. Scenario planning may involve aspects of Systems thinking, specifically the recognition that many factors may combine in complex ways to create sometime surprising futures.” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning)
As a part of the studio’s assignment, I am now working on the scenario planning and have more chances to take a close look at it. Scenario planning seems to be a way to develop a meaningful scope for problem-seeking in architectural design is to develop narratives of alternative futures. Players work with main constraints and driving forces to make stories which are detailed description of situations that might come to be. Thus, instead of developing many designs for one presumed future, as architects quite commonly do, one could have one design that works for many conceivable futures.
Does it means that the scenario design is a basic study and research which can meet many different situations in practial design.
ReplyDeleteAccording to Malcome, "Architects like to make predictions and predictions are always wrong." However, I feel that the scenario planning we are now doing is still illusions that driven from our head. As we collect resources online to make our stories, we have the tendency to neglect some facts and magnify some others to help prove our story. Anyway, it would be a lot better than just one kind of future. Good Luck for the story making!
ReplyDeleteDoes scenario planning take a lot of factor into consideration? When reaching a goal, if some of factor must be worse off, how do they decide whether to do or not?
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